" NEW " NOT ENOUGH KNOWLEDGE TO DO THE NEWS JUSTICE

Not quite "OUT WITH THE OLD"

 

This  week's historic announcement of the AUKAS Pact with the United Kingdom and the United States of America, should be widely applauded.

 

From an Australian point of view, it's advantages are manifold, from the U.K. point of view they are also manifold and from the United States point of view they are opportune. Not many months ago nothing of the sort was envisaged. The naked threats by the Chinese Communist Party's CHINA (" Prepare for War"Emperor {actually First Secretary and Premier} Xi Jin Ping "for life"  instructed the Party's Army, Navy and Air Force) and thus shocked the World. For years we had been consoling ourselves with the idea that the CCP's CHINA would gradually become "nice" and civilised as its people became better off under the the quasi capitalism adopted by the previous Premier Deng Jao Ping.

 

Now, it became obvious as the mask fell away, that nothing of the kind had happened . Rather, the West has been very cynically duped. The truth had been revealed by President Trump ,elected in 2016, he shone the light on the facts - facts vested interests had conspired to ignore. China had been abusing every concession made to it, especially membership of the World Trade Organisation. But China herself, flushed with the hubris of the Emperor Xi, and the ancient delusions of itself as "the Middle Kingdom" became ever more boldly bellicose and belligerent. The World was treated with video clips of the Emperor parading past lengthy hordes of missile launchers and rigid parades of thousands of servicemen passing him as their great leader. As if this were not enough, other video clips showed the CCP's Navy proceeding in review at sea, featuring it's new Aircraft Carrier.

Xi

 
To bring matters to a head, in 2020 in its Immunology Research Centre in Wuhan, there appears to have been a major development the COVID 19 Virus and by some means it came to get out of the Centre and into the Wuhan community. By swift action the Emperor Xi isolated Wuhan and the Virus never reached Beijing. As the Wuhan death toll grew, he initiated an inquiry and for two weeks after the inquiry, he continued to FORBID travel from Wuhan within CHINA but allowed Wuhan travellers to spread around the World. Whether this was because of incompetence or malice, observers may judge. The results were catastrophic, thanks to the World Health Organisation which is headed by the CCP's favoured candidate Director General Tedros a committed Communist from Somalia. He declared the outbreak a "PANDEMIC". - this had catastrophic economic effects around the globe, especially in the compliant capitalistic economies of the West. This was all following prior binding agreements under the auspices of the WHO which had not been invoked before. CHINA, seeing herself, and having become in effect , the factory of the world , seemed to be the only beneficiary. Strange.

The Essential AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE 

Although two of them rated almost no coverage in the Media , both Australian and international, three factors drove the Australian decision:

1. The Chinese Communist threat - the "Great Leader "of Communist China had recently on several occasions instructed his Armed Forces quite openly to "prepare for war". At the same time he had increased his Air Force's overflights of Taiwanese air space in a most aggressive fashion, whilst having his Navy carry out invasion landing exercises in adjoining territories. This cam e on top of the most belligerent and aggressive trade actions against Australia as regards our coal, barley, wine, and other items which have constituted a major element in our two way trade. The reason for this trade war was Australia's action in trying to secure an objective investigation into the origins of the CCP(Wuhan) Virus. The Great Leader was evidently upset that anyone, least of all "the Australians" should seek the truth. The CCP's propaganda machinery had moved in the most hostile manner to attack Australia with vituperation and lies.

2. Srategic . Nuclear powered submarines - especially those under consideration by Australia are  never re-fuelled in their 35 years lifetime and they can operate at about three times the speed of diesel-electric submarines even when submerged. For Australia, which suffers from what the great Professor Geoffrey Blainey termed "the tyranny of distance". This is a manifest advantage.It means that the submarines can transit to their patrol station far more swiftly and remain there indefinitely ( subject to being replenished with food). It also means that we require fewer submarines easing the manning burden, and compensating for the increased unit acquisition cost.

3.Tactical . The greater submerged speed means that after launching its weapons - which will include long range underwater launched missiles, the submarine can rapidly clear the launch location and with every minute rapidly multiply the difficulties of any one trying to locate it. Its vastly increased submerged speed also enhances its submarine attack capabilities.

Although these facts are the driving realities, especially the second and third,they are largely  ignored by the media because they lack the entertainment value of the political developments. The "offended" French and now German parties ignore them because they highlight how inadequate the French handling of the matter was.The first is ignored lest we should offend the Chinese Communists.

A French Perspective

When the opportunity to consider the Australian submarine requirement arose, the French were happy to be involved  - a chance to give "one in the eye" to the British with whom Australia's Royal Australian Navy had associations dating back to it's foundation. The recent overthrow of the Government of Mr Tony Abbott by that of Malcolm ("I'm a multi-millionaire and the smartest man in any room I enter) Turnbull, threw the submarine issue into turmoil. There had been a German- French - Japanese competition nearing completion , and it had been accepted wisdom that Mr.Abbott had favoured the Japanese. Mr.Turnbull as it turned out favoured "le style Francaise" and so it was decided.

MACRON NOT HAPPY

 

But, as time went by, the French proposal, become contract, had evolved and evolved and its cost soared and soared more than doubling from some $40 Billion AUD to $ 90 Billions and counting. In the meantime Mr.Turnbull himself came to be more than the conservative Liberal? National Party coalition could stomach. The former Treasurer Scott Morrison took command. The submarine issue was overwhelmed by a Federal Election, Major Bushfires, the Virus Panic and all the while it came to be seen as a major and festering problem. Then the hubris of the Chinese Communist Party's "Leader for Life" Xi Jin Ping led to a global realisation that we of the free world, were confronted by a bellicose , blustering tyrant who threatened the whole world. In a quite remarkable performance he managed to put offside, the United States, Japan, India, Australia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaya  the Middle Eastern countries (except the pariah Iran) Russia, the E.U. and much of Africa. In a surprising development, internal political rumblings in Mr.Morrison's Government had brought to the Defence portfolio, Mr. Peter Dutton - a dour no nonsense man of great determination. He evidently took one look at the China developments, the submarine fiasco, and set about what some would call in another context a "great reset".

 

PETER DUTTON

 

 
The French had apparently taken the view that the deterioration in Australia's strategic position would not affect their proposal , as it was after all "only the Australians". Quite a mistake. Perhaps at their senior levels they were pre-occupied with the French Presidential Elections now approaching rapidly ( First Round to be held in April, 2022). Whatever the case may be, no one evidently considered the possibility of "the Australians" cancelling the contract for the submarines and what electoral effect that might produce. Suddenly "one in the eye" for the British would become "one in the eye for the French - more specifically for M.Le President - Emmanuel Macron.  He has not of late been wearing his "happy" face. 

In order to avoid questioning about the adequacy of his following of the situation, and, reflecting his pique, M.Le President recalled his Ambassadors to Australia and to the United States - but not the U.K. .The latter might have reacted with their customary world-weary attitude to this olde worlde diplomatic game. Besides it might have caused unnecessary irritation within the EU. There are still "fish being fried" there. And why give the British the satisfaction of showing how far "we" had failed in wooing away their Australian "clients". 

This was not the first time the French had "put their foot in the R.A.N. door" . In the mid '70s they had provided the plans for the Fleet Replenishment ship H.M.A.S. SUCCESS which was built at Cockatoo Island Dockyard in Sydney. Early in the piece, the Australians were shocked to find that the "package" of plans they had bought DID NOT include plans for the plumbing of the ship! The French explained that they did not prepare plans for such things. ("These Australians!). Three decades on when "SUCCESS" was to be replaced it was perhaps not surprising that the requirement was agreed with Spain's Navantia - this time for two ships for our growing Navy.

So , the Ambassadors did their bit, saying al the right things to please M Le President. And then yesterday the French Government was able to announce a contract for electric trains to the State of Victoria valued at AUD 300 Millions.

And today the French Government was able to state that the submarine contract affair would NOT have  any bearing on Australia's continuing negotiation of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The storm in the diplomatic teacup was subsiding.

But of course M. Le President's posturing and pique was grist for the media mills. 

 

The British Perspective

Prime Minister Boris Johnson like any good Brit, no doubt loved the chance to give the French "one in the eye" especially when that young upstart Macron was trying to poach one of the Anglophone family ( if we can really include those ...... colonials in that group.) More importantly, he hoped to be able to wed the Australians to the  Brits.' new "ASTUTE" Class submarine replacement (now in development even though "ASTUTE" Class construction is still nearing completion.) This no doubt led to his surprising agreement to leave the Paris Climate Accords "off the table" when completing  his recent Free Trade Agreement with Australia only a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if the EU negotiators are as accommodating in the continuing Free Trade negotiations with Australia.  The Australians for their part will no doubt be hewing close to the line that "Trade is trade" and "Climate Policy is something else".

 

The United States Perspective

In the current U.S. Administration, it is difficult to tell who is running the show. President Biden gives varying impressions at varying times. Most times he seems to be "off his meds" : tired - even thoroughly exhausted mentally, at other times a little too much hyped up ( as at the UN yesterday - despite the occasional slurred word,  his emphatic delivery seemed often somewhat excessive as if he had slightly over-dosed on the steroids. It was interesting to watch his minders in the middle of the chamber looking on anxiously.

MACRON AND BIDEN

 

 Commentary in the USA has been mixed as regards the AUKUS Pact.The Left emphasising the discomfiture of "our oldest ally (France) " the Right, more generally favourable, but both sides keen to play down somewhat the anti-China rationale everyone knows is at the heart of the matter.

Mr.Biden ( or his speech writers) was/were keen to mollify their EU partners and soft-pedal the Chinese issue in his UN address. Surprisingly, he was followed after a few hours by Xi Jin Ping himself - rather than some lesser being as had been formally arranged . Xi's address was moderate in tone with no more than a couple of sly digs at the West/USA  - all in all surprisingly moderate in tone and "jackboots" carefully out of sight.

 

The Chinese Perspective

 

The cause of all the strife is of course,the behaviour of Xi Jin Ping. He seems at last to have come under heavy pressure from within the CCP to lower his rhetoric somewhat. Hence his moderate  but unexpected UN appearance.  The AUKUS pact announcement seems to have come as a surprise to the Chinese Communists. Coming as it did , on top of Japan's announcement that it would stand by TAIWAN, and its several gestures toward TAIWAN's status as an independent nation  were surprising to the Chinese Communists. Coupled with Freedom of Navigation exercises by the Royal Navy, the Japanese Navy and Royal Australian navy and the United States Navy, the message seems to have finally gotten through to the CCP that Xi Jin Ping has overplayed his hand - entirely.

We may yet see some concrete demonstration of just how much weight the CCP puts behind the term "for life".

 

Meanwhile Back in Australia...

 

The Government has already announced its intention to carry out a Life of Type extension programme on its existing COLLINS Class diesel-electric submarines to ensure that we do not face a gap between the normal end of the COLLINS Class lifespan and the likely arrival of the first of the new subs in 2040. But as we have seen , surprise developments are becoming less surprising, The location at which this work is to be carried out appears likely to be W.A.  As a job creator, the project will be highly sensitive politically.